Arthur D. LittleArthur D. Little

Publications / Reports

Beating the Unknown

Beating the Unknown

A Simplified Approach for Risk-Based Decision-Making

Businesses continuously face unsteady and challenging waters as the world becomes more complex and change happens every day. Nonetheless, most businesses support their decision-making processes using simple and static net present value or internal rate of return calculations neglecting to assess the uncertainties present in the underlying assumptions.

Drawing from a recent project in the energy & utilities sector, Arthur D. Little presents a pragmatic approach based on the Monte Carlo method, which allows thorough evaluation of the risk in business cases. Using this approach, businesses can reduce their downside potential and maximize the outcomes of their decisions.

Released: July 2014

Download File ADL_Energy-Utilities_2014_BeatingTheUnknown.pdf (.PDF, 616 Kb)

previous report | next report